Russia Declares Expanded War Goals Beyond Ukraine’s Donbas

Russian military circles are divided on the issue of expanding the war in Ukraine beyond the Donbas. The military leadership has repeatedly revised its war goals in Ukraine as the war has failed in the field. A former Russian general complained that the military leadership is pursuing demilitarization in Ukraine at the expense of achieving the stated war goals. In addition, Russian officials are having difficulty employing the same ideological justifications for the invasion that they have for the conflict.

In late May, Kremlin officials clarified the slow pace of the war by claiming that Ukraine’s forces were not achieving their objectives. Meanwhile, the Russians are advancing relentlessly in the Donbas and have liberated many settlements. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s President said in his nightly video address that the country is working to secure air defense systems from its partners.

The Russians are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces in the eastern Ukraine. They likely intend to achieve several simultaneous encirclements of Ukrainian forces. In Severodonetsk, they are likely to try to secure the highway leading north to Severodonetsk. The Russian military command will also probably seek to cut the highway linking Severodonetsk and the rest of Ukraine. While it is unlikely that Russian forces will manage to encircle the city of Bakhmut, they may attempt to cut it off from the highway to the town.

As Russian forces continue their assaults on the Azovstal Steel Plant and the defenders of Mariupol, the Ukrainian military command ordered all remaining defenders to surrender. The military commander hopes to return the captured defenders to Ukraine as part of negotiated prisoner exchanges. The reversal of events in Mariupol shows how the Russian military has lost out on the economic benefits of Mariupol.

While the Russian military forces have not halted their assaults against the Ukrainian cities of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk, they are continuing to pull back from the northern settlements of Kharkiv City. The Ukrainian forces are likely to attack the Russian military ground lines to Izyum and Bakhmut in the coming days. Additionally, Russian occupation authorities in Mariupol have announced war crimes trials against Ukrainian soldiers in the city. This is likely an effort to cement their judicial control over the city and to provide support to the false Kremlin narratives about Ukrainian crimes.

Russian forces are continuing their assault on Severodonetsk on May 29. While Russian troops have largely been halted from Izyum to the south, the seizure of Severodonetsk could aid the conquest of Donetsk Oblast. However, the Battle of Severdonetsk may hinder further large-scale Russian offensive operations in the area.

While the Russian military has made incremental gains in eastern Ukraine, the Ukrainian military’s defenses have resisted the advances. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar said that the fighting is at its maximum intensity and will likely escalate. However, Ukrainian Defense Ministry spokesman Oleksandr Motuzyanyk described the Russian gains as “temporary successes.” While the Russian military is in full control of nearly 90% of Luhansk Oblast, the Ukrainian forces are still attempting to hold on to their positions. The situation is also highly fluid.