Wheat in the Russian Breadbasket
Wheat is already planted in the Russian breadbasket, with the country currently experiencing high yields. Winter wheat is harvested in late August and will offset a projected decline in spring wheat production, which starts in late April. Winter wheat is grown in southern and central districts, while spring wheat is planted in the Urals and Siberian regions. The yields of each crop are linked to weather and crop type.
The conflict between the Ukraine and Russia has impacted agricultural exports, with Russian grain supplies being affected by the blockage of its Black Sea ports since February 24. However, Russian wheat exports are expected to continue to be muted this month, due to logistics and costs. A continued blockade of Russian ports could result in a halving of global grain supplies.
The recent invasion of Ukraine has boosted wheat prices, as a result of the uncertainty surrounding access to Europe’s breadbasket. The new crop of Russian wheat has pushed the price down, but a weaker rouble and lower export tax will likely keep the price of wheat competitive. If the war does not end soon, rising prices of Russian wheat will be a boon for producers.
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently discussed the issue of safe Black Sea passages with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. The United Nations says the conflict will increase the risk of hunger for 181 million people. Ukrainian farmers are facing their most difficult situation since Ukraine gained independence. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has offered to open the Black Sea to help farmers export their crops.
The war in Ukraine has halted the production of millions of tons of wheat, corn, and vegetable oil. Moreover, the conflict has disrupted seaborne trade, which accounts for the bulk of the country’s sales. While the agreement is signed, it is unclear how it will be implemented. Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russian forces have targeted infrastructure, and crop fields were destroyed.
Despite a weak dollar and a lack of rain, the outlook for the Russian wheat crop is largely optimistic. According to the Gro Climate Risk Navigator, the world’s wheat-growing regions are experiencing the lowest soil moisture levels since 2010. A recent survey of global wheat-growing regions indicated that Russian wheat yields are expected to be among the highest since 2003.
NASA’s Harvest team is working with international partners in GEO’s Global Agricultural Monitoring initiative to measure multiple factors, including temperature and soil moisture. This information allows the scientists to predict end-of-season yields and assess crop health. They’re confident in the forecasted yields, especially since the weather conditions are improving. And as a bonus, the crops are catching up nicely.
There’s a fresh round of talks scheduled for Wednesday in Istanbul, Turkey. The absence of grains has exacerbated global food shortage concerns, which have already affected Russia’s exports. Russia is a key agricultural exporter. The decisions on the appeals of British fighters are expected to be made in the coming month. However, the situation remains fragile.